Ferrari shut down 2025 development in mid-June to focus everything on the 2026 regulation changes. That decision was supposed to signal smart long-term thinking. Instead, it’s starting to look like another Ferrari gamble that could backfire spectacularly, leaving Charles Leclerc trapped in yet another doom cycle that wastes his championship prime.
Adrian Newey believes Ferrari will be among the main 2026 contenders alongside Mercedes and McLaren. The legendary designer expects “the top teams this season will remain the same next year” despite the massive regulation reset. That sounds encouraging until you realize Ferrari isn’t actually a top team right now. They’re fourth in the Constructors’ Championship without a single win, watching McLaren dominate while Red Bull and Mercedes surge past them.
Leclerc’s recent comments reveal growing alarm about Ferrari’s 2026 prospects. “I really hope we start ’26 on the right foot because otherwise it’s going to be a tough couple of years,” he admitted unprompted. That warning bell should terrify every Ferrari fan because it suggests doubt has crept into Leclerc’s mind about whether Ferrari can actually nail these new regulations.
History keeps repeating itself at Maranello. Ferrari sacrificed 2020-2021 to focus on the 2022 ground-effect rules. That worked initially with race wins and Leclerc looking like a title contender before poor execution and weak development destroyed his championship challenge. Then came 2023’s peaky car that destroyed tires, followed by 2024’s near-miss losing the Constructors’ title by just 14 points to McLaren after a rushed mid-season upgrade disaster.
Now Ferrari’s betting everything on 2026 again using the same tools and methodologies that made the 2025 car such a disappointment. That’s the terrifying part. If Ferrari has misjudged the situation, Leclerc’s nightmare scenario of “a tough couple of years” becomes reality very quickly. The Monegasque driver signed a contract extension through 2029, meaning he could reach the end of a full decade with Ferrari without winning a championship.
Ferrari’s current trajectory is genuinely worrying. They’ve regressed in how they run the car with too many operational setbacks undermining their performance potential. Singapore saw brake management problems emerge after just a few laps, forcing Ferrari to spend “95%” of the race managing temperatures before Hamilton’s brake failed entirely. That followed Baku where they were fast in practice but delivered poor qualifying.
Team Principal Fred Vasseur called it “mega frustrating” having two consecutive races where performance potential exceeded mediocre results. But frustration doesn’t win championships. Execution does, and Ferrari keeps failing at execution precisely when it matters most. They’re at risk of losing their way with Leclerc admitting “a little bit stupid” desperate setup gambles like adding massive front wing in Singapore Q3 after being frustrated all weekend.
The 2026 regulations represent Ferrari’s biggest opportunity and potentially their biggest disaster. Engine efficiency and fuel performance will be crucial alongside active aerodynamics debuts. Ferrari has racing pedigree and resources, but so did they in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Each time they’ve found new ways to underperform expectations.
The Tifosi deserve better than watching another regulatory reset squandered through poor execution and weak development. Ferrari has the talent, resources, and driver lineup to challenge for championships. Whether they have the organizational competence to actually deliver remains the billion-dollar question heading into 2026.
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